Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
