Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
